Hey NVL, that's a good start. I agree with Black Sheep--the best way to reason with a JW is to ask questions. That being said, I'm sure there are times when a direct approach works. When you're dealing with JWs, you have to make sure all your facts are bullet-proof. If they find one fact that's wrong, they'll discount your whole line of reasoning.
Russell and group first said end would come in 1871, then 1874, then 1912, then 1914. The year 1914 is calculated using day for a year calculation and 7 times meaning 7 years, so 2520, 607 B.C. to 1914 A.D. is 2520 years. However, this only works if you use years that are 360 days in length. Insight book says "In Prophecy. In prophecy the word “year” is often used in a special sense as the equivalent of 360 days (12 months of 30 days each). (Re 11:2, 3)." If a real year is used, this gets us to 1949 A.D.
Russell didn't say the end would come in 1871 or 1874. Barbour and other Adventists who associated with / influenced Russell pointed to 1874, but Russell didn't. Russell did point to 1874 as the start of the last days (exactly how the JWs now 1914).
Russell and the WTS absolutely did point to 1914 as the end, then 1918, and 1925. These are well-documented. For helpful quotes and cites to WT literature, see http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/1800s.php. If you're gonna use dates, use those dates. Google Books has scanned copies of a lot of the older publications, including the Studies in the Scriptures series and the "Millions Now Living Will Never Die" booklet. So, if a JW gives you heat about where you got your info (and this is a common diversionary tactic), it's helpful to be familiar with Google Books. Here are a couple of helpful links:
- Millions Now Living Will Never Die: http://books.google.com/books?id=V0gMAAAAYAAJ (see pages 88-89 for discussion of 1925)
- The Finished Mystery: http://books.google.com/books?id=dDQSOQV2RBIC (page 485 talks about God destroying church members by the millions in 1918)
Regarding the 360-day year, it's interesting that the Society uses 360-day years to calculate the # of years, but then 365/6-day years to count down to 1914. So, here are the logical leaps that you have to make to get to 1914:
- You have to agree that, despite what every single historian says, Jerusalem was destroyed in 607 BC.
- You have to agree that Daniel's 7 times prophecy had to be fulfilled twice--even though not one single scripture says so.
- You have to agree that the 7 times, which meant 7 years in the first fulfillment, mean something else in the second fulfillment.
- You have to agree that the 7 times in the second fulfillment mean 7 years of 360 days each, where each "day" means a year of 365 or 366 days each.
Isn't it all completely clear and "Bible-based"? Do you ever feel STUPID for having believed this nonsense in the first place? Sometimes I do...